{"meta":{"title":"Tesla FSD Supervised — EU Progress Tracker","subtitle":"Country-by-country regulatory status, double-majority model, availability estimates, and source evidence","asOf":"2026-10-12","asOfLabel":"12 October 2026","updatedAt":"2026-10-12T18:00:00Z","timezone":"Europe/Lisbon","schemaVersion":2,"brand":"IntelligenceISIT","brandUrl":"https://www.intelligenceisit.com","sitePath":"/fsd-eu/","dataUrl":"/api/fsd-eu","blob":{"container":"isit-catalog","name":"fsd-eu.json","note":"Daily Grok durable task (ISITWeb/ops/fsd-eu) scrapes watch targets and overwrites this single blob. Page fetches /api/fsd-eu on load/refresh. Not Codex."},"opsPath":"ops/fsd-eu/data/fsd-eu.json","owner":"grok-durable-schedule","disclaimer":"Analytical forecast from public sources and social posts. Not legal advice, not a leaked roll call, not affiliated with Tesla or any regulator. Social statements are recorded as primary-source claims, not independent verification."},"summary":{"headline":"Eight EU markets live. Germany backs EU path; Dec TCMV next.","blurb":"FSD Supervised still customer-available in eight member states (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE/SI/CZ/HR · ~12.7% pop). Catch-up after ~10d scrape gap (scheduler empty again until re-registered 12 Oct): TCMV 6 Oct held as discussions-only (no vote). Same day BMV/Bilger published Tesla deal — max 10% speed tolerance, rename to Tesla Assisted Driving, Germany will push for prompt EU-wide approval; Elon: \"Danke Schön!\". Tesla EU sites renamed ~8–9 Oct (FR: Tesla Conduite Assistée). Slovakia minister Ráž (7 Oct): recognition letter to RDW \"in coming days\" — not yet confirmed sent (still not 9th market). Reuters (7 Oct) RDW-pressure investigation (optics). FR UTAC/ministry formal results still unpublished; Paris Motor Show FSD demos. PT still waiting.","approvedCount":8,"memberStates":27,"populationSharePct":12.7,"euWideStatus":"pending","euWideLabel":"Pending — Oct 6 discussions held (no vote); Dec earliest","nextMilestone":{"id":"tcmv-2026-12","label":"Next TCMV — earliest realistic EU-wide vote window (Dec 2026)","date":"2026-12-01","confidence":"medium"},"portugalStatus":"waiting","portugalOneLiner":"Portugal still not on Tesla's approved list; IMT monitoring EU process. Catch-up: DE backing + rename lift Dec EU odds; PT still tracks December TCMV."},"thresholds":{"memberStatesRequired":15,"populationPctRequired":65,"ruleNote":"Qualified majority: at least 15 of 27 member states representing at least 65% of the EU population. Abstentions do not count toward either threshold."},"estimates":{"euWide":{"label":"EU-wide customer availability","central":"2026-12 to 2027-Q1","earliest":"2026-12","latest":"2027-Q2","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Map still 8/27 (~12.7%). Material: Bilger/BMV (6 Oct) backs prompt EU-wide approval after Sep Tesla talks (≤10% speed, rename Tesla Assisted Driving). TCMV 6 Oct confirmed discussions-only. SK recognition letter imminent but unconfirmed. FR UTAC still unpublished; SE/ETSC speed concerns partially addressed by 10% cap but not withdrawn. Reuters RDW-pressure piece is optics headwind, not a map change."},"portugal":{"label":"Portugal customer availability","central":"After Dec EU window or later national recognition","earliest":"2026-12","latest":"2027-Q2","confidence":"low","path":"either","rationale":"No IMT recognition or Tesla Portugal activation. Catch-up scrape; EU-path tracks December TCMV — DE backing modestly improves near-term EU odds that PT rides."},"oddsNote":"Subjective probability buckets from: next realistic TCMV vote window (December earliest — EU does not move faster than published agendas), live market count/pop share, national recognition pace, Germany/France/Italy posture, Tesla market-list / rename changes, IMT/DRE silence. October 2026 TCMV window dropped: draft agenda was discussions-only and the meeting held with no vote. Not a market — analytical forecast only.","odds":{"euWide":{"asOf":"2026-10-12","question":"P(EU-wide FSD Supervised customer path clears — TCMV QMV pass or equivalent bloc recognition enabling Tesla activation beyond the eight live markets)","buckets":[{"id":"by_dec_tcmv","label":"By Dec 2026 TCMV window","p":0.42,"note":"DE ministerial backing (18.6% pop) + rename + ≤10% speed deal lift odds vs pre-Oct 0.32; FR/SE/ETSC still open risks"},{"id":"by_eoy_2026","label":"By end of 2026","p":0.48,"note":"Allows Dec vote + late activation lag; SK drip and DE yes improve path but large-state FR still unpublished"},{"id":"by_mid_2027","label":"By mid-2027","p":0.78,"note":"Baseline if Dec slips or FR/SE demand further speed-function changes into H1 2027"},{"id":"by_eoy_2027","label":"By end of 2027","p":0.88,"note":"Still fails if Article 39 path is reworked or big-state block holds"}],"drivers":["TCMV 6 Oct held as discussions-only (confirmed) — December remains earliest published EU-wide vote window","Germany BMV/Bilger (6 Oct): constructive agreement with Tesla — ≤10% speed tolerance, rename to Tesla Assisted Driving; will push for prompt EU-wide approval","Tesla EU websites renamed ~8–9 Oct to Tesla Assisted Driving / FR Tesla Conduite Assistée (name only; map unchanged)","8/27 states live (~12.7% pop); Slovakia minister (7 Oct) says RDW recognition letter \"in coming days\" — not yet confirmed","FR UTAC/ministry formal results still unpublished; SE formal speed objection + ETSC reject brief still open; Reuters RDW-pressure investigation (7 Oct) is optics"],"updatedReason":"Material catch-up: DE Bilger backing + rename lift Dec 0.32→0.42 / EOY 0.36→0.48; map still 8/27; TCMV Oct discussions confirmed"},"portugal":{"asOf":"2026-10-12","question":"P(Portugal customer FSD Supervised available — Tesla PT activation for PT-registered vehicles)","buckets":[{"id":"by_dec_tcmv","label":"By Dec 2026 TCMV window","p":0.15,"note":"Needs Dec EU pass + immediate PT activation, or surprise IMT recognition — neither signalled; rides DE-backed Dec lift"},{"id":"by_eoy_2026","label":"By end of 2026","p":0.32,"note":"Needs Dec EU pass + fast PT activation, or national fast-track — neither signalled"},{"id":"by_mid_2027","label":"By mid-2027","p":0.68,"note":"Most likely if EU-wide clears in winter 2026 / spring 2027"},{"id":"by_eoy_2027","label":"By end of 2027","p":0.84,"note":"Default if EU path proceeds with one slip cycle"}],"drivers":["Portugal absent from Tesla PT approved-market footnotes","No IMT recognition / DRE instrument enabling customer use","EU-path PT tracks December TCMV; DE backing improves EU odds PT rides","Art.39 drip continues (HR live; SK imminent claim) — PT still silent"],"updatedReason":"Catch-up: PT still absent; Dec 0.11→0.15 / EOY 0.26→0.32 on DE-backed EU lift only"},"coverage":{"asOf":"2026-10-12","question":"Expected count of EU member states with customer FSD Supervised live","now":8,"scenarios":[{"id":"at_dec_tcmv","label":"Around Dec 2026 TCMV","expectedLow":8,"expectedHigh":13,"note":"SK recognition letter likely; more Art.39 drips possible; FR/DE/ES national customer still unlikely before EU-wide pass"},{"id":"eoy_2026","label":"End of 2026","expectedLow":9,"expectedHigh":22,"note":"Wide range: Dec fails/slips → slow drip; Dec passes → many markets unlock into 2027"},{"id":"mid_2027","label":"Mid-2027","expectedLow":15,"expectedHigh":27,"note":"If EU-wide clears, most of the map can fill; if not, still limited club"}]}}},"watchTargets":{"description":"Sites and accounts the daily Grok task should prioritise. Official/regulatory first; social for primary-source claims and rollout signals.","tier1_official":[{"id":"tesla-pt-fsd","name":"Tesla Portugal FSD page","url":"https://www.tesla.com/pt_pt/fsd","why":"Approved-market footnotes; activation limited to registration market"},{"id":"tesla-pt-sub","name":"Tesla Portugal subscription / FSD purchase pages","url":"https://www.tesla.com/pt_pt/","why":"EU approved-country list often mirrored on subscription UI"},{"id":"tesla-eu-fsd","name":"Tesla Europe country FSD pages","url":"https://www.tesla.com/en_eu/fsd","why":"Cross-check market footnotes across EU locales"},{"id":"imt","name":"IMT (Portugal)","url":"https://www.imt-ip.pt/","why":"Portuguese recognition / test-licensing authority"},{"id":"dre","name":"Diário da República","url":"https://diariodarepublica.pt/","why":"Portuguese legal instruments affecting AV / FSD"},{"id":"rdw","name":"RDW news","url":"https://www.rdw.nl/en/news","why":"Originator of Article 39 provisional type approval"},{"id":"ec-tcmv","name":"European Commission / TCMV / comitology","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/comitology-register/","why":"EU-wide vote scheduling and outcomes"},{"id":"unece-r171","name":"UNECE / UN R171 (DCAS)","url":"https://unece.org/","why":"Underlying DCAS regulatory framework"}],"tier2_regulators_news":[{"id":"kba","name":"KBA / German transport ministry signals","url":"https://www.kba.de/","why":"Germany review"},{"id":"traficom","name":"Traficom (Finland)","url":"https://www.traficom.fi/","why":"Possible national approval ahead of EU vote"},{"id":"electrek","name":"Electrek Tesla FSD Europe","url":"https://electrek.co/","why":"Rollout and minister statements"},{"id":"reuters","name":"Reuters autos / Tesla FSD Europe","url":"https://www.reuters.com/","why":"Regulator and safety reporting"},{"id":"nota","name":"Not a Tesla App","url":"https://www.notateslaapp.com/","why":"Country application status"},{"id":"etsc","name":"ETSC","url":"https://etsc.eu/","why":"Safety council letters to ministers"},{"id":"fsd-eu-tracker","name":"FSD-EU-Tracker","url":"https://fsd-eu-tracker.de/en/","why":"Aggregated timeline (cross-check only)"},{"id":"eleport","name":"Eleport FSD Europe explainer","url":"https://eleport.com/tesla-fsd-europe/","why":"Narrative timeline of first five approvals"}],"tier3_social_primary":[{"id":"x-elon","name":"Elon Musk on X","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk","handle":"@elonmusk","why":"Primary-source pressure on regulators (e.g. France delay 'will cost lives'); record as claim, not independent proof"},{"id":"x-teslaeurope","name":"Tesla Europe on X","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope","handle":"@teslaeurope","why":"Official rollout announcements, km stats, country approvals"},{"id":"x-tesla","name":"Tesla on X","url":"https://x.com/Tesla","handle":"@Tesla","why":"Global FSD announcements that affect Europe narrative"},{"id":"other-social","name":"Tesla / Elon elsewhere","url":null,"why":"LinkedIn Tesla Europe, Tesla IR, conference Q&A — only when corroborated or clearly primary-source"}],"tier4_youtube":{"description":"YouTube is not regulator-grade, but creators often beat official channels on EU FSD: ride-alongs, national approvals, TCMV chatter, and unofficial leaks from Tesla / people close to Tesla. Always scan channelHints (IntelligentTesla first, then the 10 highest-reach FSD/Tesla channels below), skim transcripts/captions, and extract EU-relevant claims. Label kind=youtube; never treat as regulator proof.","enabled":true,"maxNewPerRun":10,"recencyDays":14,"searchQueries":["Tesla FSD Europe","Tesla FSD Supervised Europe","Tesla FSD Netherlands OR Germany OR France OR Portugal OR Finland OR Slovenia","Tesla FSD TCMV OR UNECE OR RDW OR Article 39","Tesla Europe FSD approval OR rollout OR leak"],"channelHints":[{"id":"intelligent-tesla","name":"IntelligentTesla","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@IntelligentTesla","priority":true,"approxSubs":null,"why":"ISIT / our channel — always scan first for EU FSD claims, ride-alongs, and leaks"},{"id":"now-you-know","name":"Now You Know","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@NowYouKnow","approxSubs":"340K","why":"Highest-reach Tesla news show (Tesla Time News); often covers EU approvals and software leaks"},{"id":"numerama","name":"Numerama","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@Numerama","approxSubs":"263K","why":"Large FR tech outlet; deep EU FSD Supervised / homologation reporting"},{"id":"dirty-tesla","name":"Dirty Tesla","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@DirtyTesla","approxSubs":"143K","why":"Top FSD ride / software channel; watch for EU-relevant claims and early build chatter"},{"id":"ai-drivr","name":"AI DRIVR","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@AIDRIVR","approxSubs":"140K","why":"High-reach FSD deep dives; EU collabs and early software impressions"},{"id":"best-in-tesla","name":"BestInTESLA","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@bestintesla","approxSubs":"114K","why":"Frequent EU approval / TCMV / rollout news roundups; often surfaces unofficial chatter"},{"id":"tesla","name":"Tesla","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@Tesla","approxSubs":"official","why":"Official product / event footage — baseline, but creators often move first"},{"id":"tesla-jigsaw","name":"Tesla Jigsaw","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@TeslaJigsaw","approxSubs":"30K","why":"UK/EU approval and TCMV explainers; safety-data and vote analysis"},{"id":"sawyer-merritt","name":"Sawyer Merritt","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@realsawyermerritt","approxSubs":"23K","why":"High-signal Tesla/SpaceX news pipeline; often first with leaks that later hit EU narrative"},{"id":"robot-irl","name":"robot*irl","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@robotinreallife","approxSubs":"14K","why":"Best EU-street FSD field tests (NL/BE/DK/etc.); country + date often explicit"},{"id":"steven-peeters","name":"Steven Peeters","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@StevenPeeters","approxSubs":"10K","why":"Belgium / EU regs specialist; national approvals, GRVA/TCMV, early supervised rides"}],"extractRules":["Scan IntelligentTesla first, then every channelHints URL for uploads in recencyDays; also run searchQueries","Prefer videos with usable captions/transcripts; skip music-only or no-caption uploads","Creators often have more than official channels — capture unofficial leaks, Tesla-employee chatter, and early national-approval tips when EU-relevant; still claim-grade only","Glean EU / country / approval / TCMV / RDW / IMT / Article 39 / rollout claims — ignore pure US HW flex with no EU hook","Record speaker + approximate timestamp if useful; quote short; paraphrase the rest","news[] kind must be youtube; source = channel name; url = watch link","socialEvidence optional for high-signal clips (platform=youtube)","Do not email on YouTube-only speculation; email only if it clearly corroborates a Tier-1/2 significance event"]},"significance_for_email":["New national approval or recognition","Tesla official market added for Portugal or major EU state","TCMV vote scheduled, held, passed, or failed","IMT / Diário da República instrument enabling Portuguese customer use","Elon/Tesla primary post announcing EU country availability or material timeline change"],"ignore":["Repeated speculation without corroboration","Generic FSD US content with no EU impact","Uncorroborated social reposts of old news","YouTube speculation with no EU country / regulator / Tesla-official claim","Duplicate YouTube reuploads of an already-logged story"]},"socialEvidence":[{"id":"elon-danke-bilger-2026-10-07","date":"2026-10-07","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2107714870313676807","quote":"🇩🇪 Danke Schön! 🇩🇪","countries":["DE"],"topics":["approval","eu-wide","germany"],"kind":"reaction","featured":true,"interpretation":"Primary reaction to German transport minister Steffen Bilger pushing for prompt EU-wide FSD/Assisted Driving approval after BMV–Tesla Sept talks (≤10% speed, rename). Political backing signal — not a national DE customer unlock."},{"id":"teslaeurope-winter-ready-2026-10-07","date":"2026-10-07","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2107792835126919431","quote":"Winter is coming — FSD Supervised is ready","countries":[],"topics":["testing","rollout"],"kind":"marketing","featured":false,"interpretation":"EU winter-readiness marketing video (+ separate CH testing post). Not a new national approval or TCMV outcome."},{"id":"tesla-hq-8eu-2026-09-29","date":"2026-09-29","platform":"x","author":"Tesla","handle":"@Tesla","url":"https://x.com/Tesla/status/2105019768722043362","quote":"FSD Supervised has now been approved by 8 EU countries","countries":["HR"],"topics":["approval","eu-wide"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Corporate amplify of Tesla Europe Croatia announcement — confirms eight-market EU tally; not a new country beyond HR."},{"id":"teslaeurope-hr-2026-09-29","date":"2026-09-29","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2104844301461262602","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Croatia 🇭🇷 Rollout will begin soon","countries":["HR"],"topics":["approval"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Official eighth EU national approval (mutual recognition of Dutch RDW Art.39). Reuters corroborates same day."},{"id":"elon-tcmv-delay-sigh-2026-09-25","date":"2026-09-25","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2103506666738131032","quote":"Sigh","countries":[],"topics":["eu-wide","timeline"],"interpretation":"Primary reply to Sawyer Merritt's report that TCMV 6 Oct agenda has no FSD vote (Dec earliest). Material timeline disappointment signal; not a regulatory fact by itself.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-cz-2026-09-21","date":"2026-09-21","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2101947798933385410","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Czechia 🇨🇿 Rollout will begin soon","countries":["CZ"],"topics":["approval","rollout"],"interpretation":"Official seventh EU national approval (mutual recognition of Dutch RDW Art.39). Matches Czech Ministry of Transport press release same day.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-es-testing-2026-09-16","date":"2026-09-16","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2100188661794881815","quote":"2 years of testing FSD Supervised all over Spain — Across 460,000 km, we have seen it all","countries":["ES"],"topics":["testing","safety"],"interpretation":"Company testing / readiness narrative under DGT ES-AV — not Spanish customer approval. Spain’s July ministerial line still prefers coordinated EU path over unilateral Art.39 recognition.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-si-minister-2026-09-14","date":"2026-09-14","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2099637379829285158","quote":"[FSD Supervised] is safe, efficient, and above all, an exciting glimpse into the future of mobility… Slovenia is among the first 6 countries in Europe that opened the door to this technology.","countries":["SI"],"topics":["rollout","approval"],"interpretation":"Amplifies Slovenian Deputy PM / Infrastructure Minister Jernej Vrtovec’s positive ride impression after SI national approval — supports live/rollout narrative; not a new market.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-se-testing-2026-09-11","date":"2026-09-11","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2098366703285506550","quote":"Nearly a year of FSD Supervised testing in Sweden: complex scenarios on city streets & rural roads, at the appropriate speed, across the full range of Nordic weather","countries":["SE"],"topics":["testing","safety"],"interpretation":"Company readiness / testing narrative aimed at Sweden and Nordic conditions. Not a national approval and does not cancel Sweden’s speed-offset objection at EU level.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-si-customer-2026-09-11","date":"2026-09-11","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2098293975727878455","quote":"FSD Supervised in Slovenia","countries":["SI"],"topics":["rollout","fleet"],"interpretation":"Amplifies owner footage days after 7 Sep approval — supports ‘rollout begun’ claim; still claim-grade social.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-si-2026-09-07","date":"2026-09-07","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2097007168939593780","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Slovenia 🇸🇮 Rollout will begin soon","countries":["SI"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Official sixth EU national approval (mutual recognition of Dutch RDW Art.39). Elon Musk reposted. Slovenian AVP confirmed recognition to Reuters.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"elon-si-2026-09-07","date":"2026-09-07","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2097066172780831194","quote":"FSD Supervised approved in Slovenia 🇸🇮","countries":["SI"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Primary-source amplification of Tesla Europe Slovenia approval.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"tabarot-fr-tests-2026-09-02","date":"2026-09-02","platform":"x","author":"Philippe Tabarot","handle":"@PhilippeTabarot","url":"https://x.com/PhilippeTabarot/status/2095225468035170725","quote":"Échange constructif ce soir avec @elonmusk autour du dispositif Full Self-Driving (FSD) de Tesla. … Avec la mise à disposition de deux véhicules équipés de FSD par Tesla, nous entrons désormais dans une nouvelle étape : celle des essais sur route.","countries":["FR"],"topics":["testing","approval-pressure"],"interpretation":"French Transport Minister: constructive call with Musk; months of technical work; Tesla supplies two FSD cars for French on-road tests ahead of EU decision. Material posture shift vs July ‘not safe enough’.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-art39-dashboard-2026-09-01","date":"2026-09-01","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2094661569582096779","quote":"An update on FSD Supervised in Europe — FSD is currently approved in five EU countries … 4.1x less likely to get into a crash … across 100 million km on public EU roads","countries":["NL","DK","BE","EE","LT"],"topics":["safety","eu-wide","evidence"],"interpretation":"Public Article 39 evidence dashboard ahead of Oct TCMV. Company-reported safety stats (4.1×, ~100M+ km, scenario pass rates). Claim-grade for Tesla position; not independent regulator verification. Note: posted before Slovenia joined.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-ch-ridealong-2026-08-13","date":"2026-08-13","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2087779368290636287","quote":"FSD Supervised Ride Along experience now live in Switzerland 🇨🇭","countries":[],"topics":["demo","marketing"],"interpretation":"Passenger ride-along demo in non-EU Switzerland — not customer FSD Supervised activation and not an EU national approval. Does not change the five-market EU map or Portugal status.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"elon-france-cost-lives-2026-07-22","date":"2026-07-22","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2079965837382037520","quote":"Delaying the approval of FSD in France will cost lives","countries":["FR"],"topics":["safety","approval-pressure"],"interpretation":"Primary-source claim linking delayed authorisation to preventable harm. Recorded as Tesla/Elon position; not an independent actuarial finding. Useful context when modelling France’s opposed stance vs safety narrative.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"elon-nl-first-europe-2026-04-10","date":"2026-04-10","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2042724887320760724","quote":"First (supervised) FSD approval in Europe! Congratulations to the Tesla team and thank you to the regulatory authorities in the Netherlands…","countries":["NL"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Confirms Netherlands as first EU supervised FSD market from Tesla leadership.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"elon-nl-safety-stats-2026-06-09","date":"2026-06-09","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2064457520748339647","quote":"Major improvement in safety statistics with FSD turned on in the Netherlands!","countries":["NL"],"topics":["safety"],"interpretation":"Amplifies Tesla Europe Dutch safety stats; company-reported figures.","kind":"claim","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-5-2x-2026-07-28","date":"2026-07-28","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2082175370569417066","quote":"In the last 4 months, FSD Supervised has been over 5.2x safer than manual driving – across 65 million kilometers in 5 EU countries","countries":["NL","LT","EE","DK","BE"],"topics":["safety","fleet"],"interpretation":"Official Tesla Europe fleet claim for the five live markets. Methodology is Tesla’s; regulators and journalists have disputed related US marketing figures.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-50m-km-2026-07-14","date":"2026-07-14","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","quote":"Over 50 million kilometers driven on FSD Supervised by our customers in the Netherlands, Estonia, Belgium, Lithuania & Denmark","countries":["NL","EE","BE","LT","DK"],"topics":["fleet"],"interpretation":"Scale signal in the five approved markets; does not change regulatory map.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-2-2m-train-2026-08-07","date":"2026-08-07","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2085633306922758464","quote":"FSD Supervised has been trained & tested on 2.2 million km across 19 EU countries, handling edge cases most people wouldn’t see in their lifetime","countries":[],"topics":["testing","eu-wide"],"interpretation":"Suggests data collection / testing footprint well beyond the five live markets — relevant to readiness narrative, not approval.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-dk-2026-06-09","date":"2026-06-09","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2064350518907167166","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Denmark 🇩🇰 — Rollout will begin soon","countries":["DK"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Official approval announcement for Denmark.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-be-2026-06-11","date":"2026-06-11","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2065093518276911603","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Belgium 🇧🇪 — Rollout will begin soon","countries":["BE"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Official approval announcement for Belgium.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"sweden-safety-framing-note","date":"2026-06-18","platform":"editorial","author":"Tracker note","handle":null,"url":"https://electrek.co/2026/06/18/sweden-tesla-fsd-speeding-eu-vote/","quote":"Sweden’s authorities recommended EU-level rejection unless deliberate speed-offset behaviour is fixed — while Tesla’s broader public message is that withholding FSD costs lives / public welfare.","countries":["SE"],"topics":["safety","opposition"],"interpretation":"Sweden is the clearest formal ‘No unless fixed’ signal. Pair with Elon’s general safety framing (e.g. France ‘will cost lives’): the policy trade-off is safety-of-deployment vs safety-of-delay. Record both sides; do not treat either as settled science.","kind":"analysis","featured":true}],"milestones":[{"date":"2026-04-10","title":"Netherlands — first EU type approval","body":"RDW grants provisional European type approval under UN R171 / Article 39.","kind":"approval","countries":["NL"]},{"date":"2026-05-20","title":"Lithuania recognizes Dutch approval","body":"First mutual-recognition national go-ahead after the Netherlands.","kind":"approval","countries":["LT"]},{"date":"2026-05-29","title":"Estonia recognizes Dutch approval","body":"Transpordiamet accepts the RDW certificate; customer rollout follows.","kind":"approval","countries":["EE"]},{"date":"2026-06-09","title":"Denmark approves after technical review","body":"Færdselsstyrelsen signs off after reviewing the file.","kind":"approval","countries":["DK"]},{"date":"2026-06-10","title":"Belgium becomes the fifth live market","body":"Flemish mobility recognition extends nationwide.","kind":"approval","countries":["BE"]},{"date":"2026-06-18","title":"Sweden recommends EU rejection unless speed-offset fixed","body":"Formal opposition path tied to deliberate speeding behaviour.","kind":"opposition","countries":["SE"]},{"date":"2026-06-23","title":"Finland signals possible national approval after summer","body":"Traficom reviewing RDW file; may move before EU-wide vote.","kind":"review","countries":["FI"]},{"date":"2026-06-30","title":"TCMV discusses FSD — no vote","body":"Discussion only; EU-wide decision deferred.","kind":"eu","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-07-13","title":"Italy — homologation file under review","body":"Tesla files for recognition of RDW approval with MIT.","kind":"review","countries":["IT"]},{"date":"2026-07-17","title":"Germany — KBA evaluation ongoing","body":"BMV/KBA assessing RDW dossier.","kind":"review","countries":["DE"]},{"date":"2026-07-22","title":"France — not safe enough; Elon says delay costs lives","body":"Minister declines national adoption; Musk posts delay will cost lives.","kind":"opposition","countries":["FR"]},{"date":"2026-07-23","title":"Spain — no unilateral go-ahead","body":"Prefers coordinated EU path over national shortcut.","kind":"review","countries":["ES"]},{"date":"2026-07-28","title":"Tesla Europe: 5.2× safer claim over 65M km","body":"Company fleet stats for five live markets.","kind":"evidence","countries":["NL","LT","EE","DK","BE"]},{"date":"2026-08-06","title":"Reuters: regulators keep FSD safety data confidential","body":"RDW and others withhold evaluation detail; map unchanged.","kind":"evidence","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-08-10","title":"Daily watch: no Portuguese or EU material change","body":"Tesla PT still lists only NL, LT, EE, DK, BE.","kind":"watch","countries":["PT"]},{"date":"2026-08-16","title":"Daily watch: still five live markets; no new recognition","body":"Tracker/web/X cross-check: map unchanged (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE); TCMV still 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting.","kind":"watch","countries":["PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-01","title":"Tesla publishes Article 39 FSD safety dashboard","body":"Public evidence pack for EU vote: fleet safety claims (~4.1×), scenario tests, European km — ahead of 6 Oct TCMV.","kind":"evidence","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-09-02","title":"France begins FSD on-road tests with Tesla cars","body":"After Tabarot–Musk call, Tesla supplies two FSD-equipped vehicles for French authority road tests. Results targeted mid/late September ahead of TCMV.","kind":"review","countries":["FR"]},{"date":"2026-09-07","title":"Slovenia — sixth EU market","body":"AVP recognises Dutch RDW temporary type approval; Tesla Europe: rollout soon. First new national go-ahead since Belgium (June).","kind":"approval","countries":["SI"]},{"date":"2026-09-11","title":"Tesla Europe highlights Sweden Supervised testing","body":"Company post: nearly a year of FSD Supervised testing in Sweden across Nordic weather — readiness claim, not approval.","kind":"evidence","countries":["SE"]},{"date":"2026-09-21","title":"Czechia — seventh EU market","body":"Ministry of Transport recognises Dutch RDW provisional Art.39 type approval; Tesla Europe: rollout soon. First new national go-ahead since Slovenia (7 Sep).","kind":"approval","countries":["CZ"]},{"date":"2026-09-23","title":"Germany — Hirte: KBA clarifying speed exceedance","body":"State Secretary confirms KBA evaluating RDW file with RDW/Tesla on system exceeding posted speeds; Oct TCMV discussion expected — not a vote or national approval.","kind":"review","countries":["DE"]},{"date":"2026-09-24","title":"Belgium — Johanna.be FSD30 speeding study","body":"Independent ~400 km test: FSD exceeded limit in 55% of 30 km/h segments (avg 44 km/h). Report to RDW/Flanders; map unchanged.","kind":"evidence","countries":["BE"]},{"date":"2026-09-25","title":"TCMV 6 Oct — discussions only; Dec earliest vote","body":"Draft agenda for 119th TCMV: 25 min continuation of discussions on Dutch Art.39 request — no vote. Next meeting December. Elon: 'Sigh'.","kind":"eu","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-09-21","title":"Czechia — seventh EU market","body":"Ministry of Transport recognises Dutch RDW provisional Art.39 type approval; Tesla Europe: rollout soon. First new national go-ahead since Slovenia (7 Sep).","kind":"approval","countries":["CZ"]},{"date":"2026-09-23","title":"Germany — Hirte: KBA clarifying speed exceedance","body":"Parliamentary State Secretary Hirte (reply dated 14 Sep, published ~23 Sep): KBA evaluating RDW file and talking to RDW/Tesla about the system exceeding posted speeds; EU-wide recognition expected to be discussed in TCMV in October — not a national approval.","kind":"review","countries":["DE"]},{"date":"2026-09-24","title":"Belgium — Johanna.be FSD30 speeding study","body":"Independent Brussels NGO: FSD exceeded limit in 55% of tested 30 km/h segments (avg 44 km/h); often displayed 50 instead of 30. Report sent to RDW and Flemish ministry. Belgium remains approved.","kind":"evidence","countries":["BE"]},{"date":"2026-09-25","title":"TCMV Oct agenda: no vote — Dec earliest","body":"Reuters/Electrek: draft TCMV agenda confirms discussions-only on Dutch Art.39 request; Musk replies 'Sigh'. December is earliest apparent EU-wide vote opportunity.","kind":"eu","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-09-29","title":"Croatia — eighth EU market","body":"Tesla Europe: FSD Supervised approved in Croatia; rollout soon. Reuters corroborates national go-ahead. First new recognition since Czechia (21 Sep).","kind":"approval","countries":["HR"]},{"date":"2026-09-29","title":"ETSC urges reject of FSD speed-offset / contextual max speed","body":"Position paper ahead of Oct 6 TCMV discussions: claims speed-offset breaches UN R171 and was not in Art.39 exemptions; opposes traffic-matching contextual max speed. Soft EU-wide headwind — not a vote outcome.","kind":"opposition","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-10-06","title":"TCMV 6 Oct — discussions held (no FSD vote)","body":"119th TCMV met as scheduled: Dutch Art.39 request remained continuation of discussions only — no vote. December remains earliest apparent EU-wide vote window. Same day: BMV Bilger published Tesla deal (see DE milestone).","kind":"eu","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-10-06","title":"Germany — Bilger backs prompt EU-wide approval","body":"BMV statement: Sept talks with Tesla reached constructive agreement — system may exceed posted limit by max 10%; Tesla offered rename to Tesla Assisted Driving; driver remains 100% responsible. Bilger will push for timely EU-wide approval. Not a national DE customer unlock; KBA still reviewing.","kind":"review","countries":["DE"]},{"date":"2026-10-07","title":"Slovakia — minister: RDW recognition letter \"in coming days\"","body":"Transport Minister Jozef Ráž (video / Reuters 8 Oct): ministry negotiated with Tesla and will send Art.39(5) recognition letter to Dutch RDW; FSD then usable with driver responsible. Letter not confirmed sent as of 12 Oct — not yet 9th live market.","kind":"review","countries":["SK"]},{"date":"2026-10-07","title":"Reuters: Tesla pressed RDW to ease FSD review","body":"Investigation based on regulator emails: Tesla disputed RDW costs and sought to reduce review intensity; RDW says independence intact. Optics headwind ahead of Dec TCMV — approval map unchanged at 8/27.","kind":"evidence","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-10-09","title":"Tesla renames FSD to Tesla Assisted Driving in Europe","body":"European Tesla websites replace Full Self-Driving (Supervised) with Tesla Assisted Driving (FR: Tesla Conduite Assistée), matching the offer recorded in the 6 Oct BMV statement. Name change only — availability map unchanged.","kind":"evidence","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-12-01","title":"Next TCMV window (expected)","body":"Earliest realistic opportunity for EU-wide Art.39 vote after October discussions-only session. Exact December date TBD.","kind":"eu","countries":[],"upcoming":true}],"countries":[{"code":"NL","name":"Netherlands","populationM":18,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"RDW originated and granted the Article 39 provisional type approval (10 Apr 2026).","approvedOn":"2026-04-10","regulator":"RDW","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-07","headline":"Reuters: Tesla pressed RDW to ease FSD review","snippet":"Emails show Tesla disputed ~€365k costs and sought reduced review intensity; RDW says assessment remained independent (>3,000 test hours). Optics — NL approval and 8-market map unchanged.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/investigations/tesla-is-browbeating-eu-approve-its-full-self-driving-tech-pressure-is-working-2026-10-07/","source":"Reuters","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-09-03","headline":"Tesla Jigsaw: UK & Europe approval / Art.39 safety data","snippet":"Creator deep-dive on Tesla's Article 39 safety dashboard and TCMV path (claim-grade).","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCcwro6Zg0I","source":"Tesla Jigsaw","kind":"youtube"},{"date":"2026-08-06","headline":"Safety assessment detail kept confidential","snippet":"Reporting that RDW withholds parts of the FSD safety evaluation as manufacturer confidential — transparency debate, not a change in availability.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/pressured-by-tesla-european-regulators-keep-full-self-driving-safety-data-secret-2026-08-06/","source":"Reuters","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"LT","name":"Lithuania","populationM":2.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Recognized Dutch approval; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-05-20","regulator":"LTSA","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-14","headline":"Among five live markets in 50M+ km tally","snippet":"Tesla Europe lists Lithuania among customer FSD markets exceeding 50 million km.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-11","headline":"Customer videos from Vilnius","snippet":"Tesla Europe amplifies Lithuania FSD clips (construction, tourists, unmarked roads).","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2065145770194653553","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-05-20","headline":"Second EU country to go live","snippet":"National recognition of Dutch RDW certificate; first mutual-recognition after NL.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/05/20/tesla-fsd-lithuania-second-european-country/","source":"Electrek","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"EE","name":"Estonia","populationM":1.4,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Transpordiamet accepted RDW certificate; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-05-29","regulator":"Transpordiamet","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-14","headline":"Live market in Tesla Europe km tally","snippet":"Estonia included in official five-country customer driving statistics.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-05-29","headline":"Third EU approval","snippet":"Transpordiamet accepts Dutch type approval; rollout follows within weeks of Lithuania.","url":"https://estonianworld.com/technology/estonia-approves-teslas-self-driving-system-for-its-roads/","source":"Estonian World","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"DK","name":"Denmark","populationM":6,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Færdselsstyrelsen approved after technical review; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-06-09","regulator":"Færdselsstyrelsen","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-09-07","headline":"robot*irl: FSD vs Denmark’s worst street (Aarhus)","snippet":"Long-form supervised ride on Graven / dense Aarhus streets — claim-grade EU field evidence, not a regulatory change.","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7qXFsA_Jxs","source":"robot*irl","kind":"youtube"},{"date":"2026-07-27","headline":"FSD Supervised clips from Denmark","snippet":"Tesla Europe highlights urban/beach intersections with pedestrians and bikes.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2081843414497464646","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-11","headline":"Customer rollout starts","snippet":"FSD Supervised begins reaching Danish owners after approval.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2064877461343740353","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"}]},{"code":"BE","name":"Belgium","populationM":11.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"National recognition of Dutch approval; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-06-10","regulator":"Regional mobility (Flanders signature)","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-09-24","headline":"Johanna.be: FSD sped in 55% of Brussels 30 km/h zones","snippet":"Independent FSD30 study (~400 km, July): exceeded limit in majority of 30 km/h segments (avg 44 km/h); often showed 50 on display. Sent to RDW + Flemish ministry. Approval map unchanged.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/09/24/tesla-fsd-belgium-test-speeding-30-kmh-eu-vote/","source":"Electrek / Johanna.be","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-07-14","headline":"Live in five-market km tally","snippet":"Belgium listed among customer FSD markets in Tesla Europe statistics.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-11","headline":"Tesla Europe: approved in Belgium","snippet":"Official announcement; rollout to begin soon after Flemish recognition.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2065093518276911603","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"}]},{"code":"DE","name":"Germany","populationM":83.6,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"medium","signal":"BMV/Bilger (6 Oct): constructive agreement with Tesla — ≤10% speed tolerance, rename to Tesla Assisted Driving, driver 100% responsible; Germany will push for prompt EU-wide approval. Not national customer unlock; KBA still reviewing RDW file. Elon: \"Danke Schön!\".","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"KBA","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"EU-wide Dec window preferred; national Art.39(5) if EU fails","confidence":"medium","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-06","headline":"BMV/Bilger: deal with Tesla — ≤10% speed, rename, backs EU approval","snippet":"Official BMV article: Sept talks reached constructive agreement; system may exceed limit by max 10%; Tesla offered \"Tesla Assisted Driving\"; Bilger will work for timely EU-wide approval. Driver remains 100% responsible. Not a DE customer unlock.","url":"https://www.bmv.de/SharedDocs/DE/Artikel/StV/Digitalisierung-der-Mobilitaet/aktueller-stand-tesla-assistenzsysteme.html","source":"BMV","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-10-07","headline":"Elon: \"Danke Schön!\" to German backing","snippet":"Musk replies to Bilger push for EU-wide FSD/Assisted Driving approval. Primary political signal — not DE national activation.","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2107714870313676807","source":"@elonmusk","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-10-02","headline":"BMDV Bürgerdienst: Dec EU-wide decision envisaged","snippet":"Citizen-service reply (shared 29 Sep): Dec decision on unionsweite Anerkennung envisaged after Oct 6 consultations. Soft — envisaged ≠ locked TCMV vote agenda.","url":"https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4749/germany-says-it-is-open-to-tesla-fsd-approval-confirms-eu-wide-vote-in-december","source":"BMDV Bürgerdienst via Not a Tesla App","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"FR","name":"France","populationM":68.6,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"medium","signal":"UTAC/ministry formal results still unpublished past mid/late-Sep target (as of 12 Oct). Tesla FR site renamed to Tesla Conduite Assistée (~8–9 Oct); availability still pending regulatory approval. Paris Motor Show (12–18 Oct) offering FSD Supervised demo drives — not customer approval. TCMV Oct discussions held; Dec earliest EU vote.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"Ministère des Transports","highlight":true,"estimate":{"central":"EU-wide after TCMV if FR satisfied; national customer later","confidence":"medium","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-09","headline":"Tesla Conduite Assistée rename on FR site; still not approved","snippet":"European Tesla pages rename FSD Supervised → Tesla Assisted Driving / FR Tesla Conduite Assistée after BMV talks. Features still \"pending regulatory approval\" in France. UTAC formal results unpublished.","url":"https://www.tesla-mag.com/fsd-renomme-tesla-assisted-driving-conduite-assistee-europe/","source":"Tesla Mag / Tesla FR site","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-10-07","headline":"Paris Motor Show: FSD Supervised demo drives (not approval)","snippet":"Mondial de l'Auto Autonomous Lab: six Model 3s offering ~25 min FSD Supervised sessions. France has not nationally approved customer use; ministry tests since early Sep still without published verdict.","url":"https://teslant.com/en/news/tesla-paris-motor-show-2026-fsd-drives-cybercab","source":"TeslAnt","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-09-08","headline":"Ministry: no major obstacle to EU adaptation so far","snippet":"AFP via Sciences et Avenir: first French FSD supervised tests identified no blocking point that cannot be resolved; system could be adapted with different parameterisation.","url":"https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/high-tech/transports/tesla-le-fsd-supervise-pourrait-etre-adapte-a-la-reglementation-europeenne_194725","source":"AFP / Sciences et Avenir","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"IT","name":"Italy","populationM":58.9,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"medium","signal":"Homologation file filed with MIT; formal technical dialogue, no conclusion.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"MIT / Motorizzazione","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4 to 2027-Q1","confidence":"medium","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-13","headline":"Application under analysis","snippet":"Tesla files for recognition of RDW approval; MIT confirms documents in analysis phase.","url":"https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4430/tesla-fsd-inches-closer-to-regulatory-approval-in-italy","source":"Not a Tesla App","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-04-01","headline":"Parliamentary pressure for approval","snippet":"Earlier political push (e.g. Calenda question) to prioritise Italian authorisation.","url":"https://insideevs.it/news/794421/tesla-fsd-italia-calenda-salvini/","source":"InsideEVs IT","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"ES","name":"Spain","populationM":49.1,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Tesla Europe (16 Sep): 2 years / 460k km Supervised testing across Spain — company claim. Ministerial line still prefers coordinated EU path over unilateral Art.39 shortcut; no customer approval.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"DGT","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4 to 2027-Q1","confidence":"low","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-09-16","headline":"Tesla Europe: 2 years / 460,000 km Supervised testing in Spain","snippet":"Official X video: company testing narrative under DGT ES-AV — ‘we have seen it all’. Not a national customer unlock; July Hereu line still EU-coordinated.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2100188661794881815","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-07-23","headline":"No unilateral go-ahead","snippet":"Minister Hereu: Spain will not adopt RDW approval alone; coordinates with Commission, DGT, UN path.","url":"https://x.com/mgualdo/status/2080338935620800589","source":"Ministerial reply / X","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"ES-AV pilot fleet growth","snippet":"Public-road testing under DGT ES-AV programme (tens of cars, tens of thousands of km reported earlier in 2026).","url":"https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-full-self-driving-fsd-testing-gains-major-ground-in-spain/","source":"Teslarati","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"PL","name":"Poland","populationM":36.5,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No clear government position located; likely waits on EU-wide path.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"Daily watch: no Polish recognition, ministry statement, or Tesla PL market activation found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"RO","name":"Romania","populationM":19,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Romanian authority decision or Tesla market footnote change located.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"CZ","name":"Czechia","populationM":10.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Ministry of Transport recognised Dutch RDW provisional Art.39 approval on 21 Sep 2026; Tesla Europe confirms rollout. Seventh EU live market.","approvedOn":"2026-09-21","regulator":"Ministerstvo dopravy","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-05","headline":"robot*irl: FSD vs Prague worst junctions","snippet":"Creator field test (claim-grade): Model Y HW4 / FSD Supervised v14.2.2.6 through busy Prague junctions after CZ customer rollout. Not a regulatory change.","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kj4q8BKp6SY","source":"robot*irl","kind":"youtube"},{"date":"2026-09-22","headline":"robot*irl: first customer FSD drive in Prague","snippet":"Tier4 YouTube: owner drive within ~24h of approval — Prague streets, trams, speed bumps. Claim-grade rollout evidence, not regulator proof.","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DGgjrx-RRw","source":"robot*irl","kind":"youtube"},{"date":"2026-09-21","headline":"Czechia recognises Dutch FSD Supervised approval","snippet":"Official ministry: Art.39 recognition of RDW 10 Apr provisional type approval; SAE L2; driver remains responsible. Tesla Europe: rollout soon.","url":"https://md.gov.cz/Media/Media-a-tiskove-zpravy/Ceska-republika-uznala-prozatimni-schvaleni-system","source":"md.gov.cz","kind":"official"}]},{"code":"PT","name":"Portugal","populationM":10.6,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"IMT monitoring Europe; Tesla PT still lists Portugal as not approved. Catch-up to 12 Oct: no IMT/DRE instrument; DE backing + rename improve Dec EU odds PT would ride. Oct TCMV discussions held (no vote).","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"IMT","highlight":true,"estimate":{"central":"After Dec TCMV (or later national)","confidence":"low","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-12","headline":"Still absent from Tesla Portugal approved list","snippet":"Catch-up watch (~10d gap): eight live EU markets unchanged; TCMV 6 Oct discussions-only held; Dec earliest. No IMT/DRE instrument or Tesla PT activation.","url":"https://www.tesla.com/pt_pt/fsd","source":"Tesla Portugal / daily watch","kind":"official"},{"date":"2026-10-12","headline":"No IMT / Diario da Republica change","snippet":"Scrape through 12 Oct: no Portuguese recognition or customer rollout.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"},{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"Test-licensing framework in place","snippet":"Portugal mid-2026 autonomous-driving test licensing regime exists; enables testing, not customer FSD Supervised.","url":null,"source":"Prior context / IMT watch","kind":"regulator"}]},{"code":"SE","name":"Sweden","populationM":10.6,"status":"opposed","voteLean":"no","confidence":"high","signal":"Formal No path unless speed-offset resolved. DE/Tesla ≤10% cap (6 Oct) partially addresses the dispute but Sweden has not withdrawn its written objection. Tesla Europe (11 Sep) testing narrative only.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"Trafikverket / Transportstyrelsen","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"Only if speed concerns resolved","confidence":"medium","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-06","headline":"DE/Tesla ≤10% speed deal — SE objection still open","snippet":"Germany accepted max 10% over posted limit in EU process talks. Sweden's formal Speed Offset objection (Apr letter) not reported withdrawn; ETSC reject brief (29 Sep) still on record.","url":"https://www.bmv.de/SharedDocs/DE/Artikel/StV/Digitalisierung-der-Mobilitaet/aktueller-stand-tesla-assistenzsysteme.html","source":"BMV / daily watch","kind":"watch"},{"date":"2026-09-11","headline":"Tesla Europe: nearly a year of Supervised testing in Sweden","snippet":"Official video/post: city, rural, Nordic weather. Company testing claim — not national customer approval.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2098366703285506550","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-18","headline":"Recommends EU rejection unless speed-offset fixed","snippet":"Swedish authorities urge No while the system can deliberately exceed posted limits — strongest formal Nordic opposition signal.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/06/18/sweden-tesla-fsd-speeding-eu-vote/","source":"Electrek","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"GR","name":"Greece","populationM":10.4,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Reportedly sought fast-track national recognition of the Dutch approval.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q3 to 2026-Q4","confidence":"low","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"Fast-track interest reported","snippet":"ETSC/coverage grouped Greece with states exploring faster recognition of the Dutch certificate.","url":"https://etsc.eu/lithuania-and-estonia-authorise-tesla-fsd-with-belgium-and-greece-fast-tracking/","source":"ETSC","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"HU","name":"Hungary","populationM":9.6,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Government examining introduction; political interest in being a frontrunner, no decision yet.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4","confidence":"low","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-24","headline":"Minister: want frontrunners, not followers","snippet":"Science/tech minister says FSD discussed; European example exists; no government decision yet.","url":"https://infostart.hu/belfold/2026/06/24/a-magyar-kormany-nal-is-teritekre-kerult-a-tesla-onvezeto-rendszere","source":"Infostart","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"AT","name":"Austria","populationM":9.2,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Austrian recognition or ministry FSD stance located in daily watch.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"BG","name":"Bulgaria","populationM":6.4,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Bulgarian authority decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"FI","name":"Finland","populationM":5.6,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"medium","signal":"Traficom assessing approval; winter / speeding concerns raised; may approve nationally after summer.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"Traficom","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q3 to 2026-Q4","confidence":"medium","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-23","headline":"May approve before EU vote","snippet":"Reuters: Traficom reviewing Dutch approval; possible faster national schedule after summer; winter and speed-offset questions open.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/finland-may-approve-teslas-supervised-self-driving-software-before-eu-vote-2026-06-23/","source":"Reuters","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"SK","name":"Slovakia","populationM":5.4,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"medium","signal":"Minister Jozef Ráž (7 Oct video; Reuters 8 Oct): recognition letter to Dutch RDW \"in coming days\" after direct Tesla talks; driver remains responsible. Letter not confirmed sent as of 12 Oct — not yet customer-available / not 9th live market.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"Ministry of Transport / type-approval authority","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-10 national recognition possible; else Dec EU","confidence":"medium","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-08","headline":"Reuters: Slovakia expects to approve FSD within days","snippet":"Transport Minister Ráž: ministry will send recognition letter to Netherlands RDW; once delivered, FSD usable with driver responsible. Would be 9th EU market if completed — letter not confirmed as of 12 Oct.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/slovakia-approve-teslas-self-driving-tech-2026-10-08/","source":"Reuters","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-10-07","headline":"Minister Ráž: recognition letter to RDW in coming days","snippet":"Video announcement: negotiated with Tesla; Art.39(5) recognition of Dutch provisional approval planned. Soft — process signal, not confirmed launch.","url":"https://fsd-eu-tracker.de/en/country/slovakia/","source":"Ráž via Pravda / fsd-eu-tracker","kind":"regulator"}]},{"code":"IE","name":"Ireland","populationM":5.4,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"medium","signal":"Under review; Not a Tesla App (29 Sep) says Tesla actively working with Irish regulators — soft national-path signal, not approval.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"NSAI","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4","confidence":"medium","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-09-29","headline":"Talks with Irish regulators reported (claim-grade)","snippet":"Not a Tesla App: Tesla actively working with Irish regulators; Ireland could be next national recognition. Soft process signal — not NSAI approval.","url":"https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4747/tesla-wins-approval-to-launch-fsd-supervised-in-croatia","source":"Not a Tesla App","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-06-09","headline":"Engagement with Tesla reported","snippet":"Coverage of Irish government/NSAI engagement around FSD authorisation pathway.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/06/09/tesla-fsd-approved-denmark-fourth-european-country/","source":"Electrek (context)","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"HR","name":"Croatia","populationM":3.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Tesla Europe (29 Sep): approved; rollout soon. DZM recognised RDW provisional Art.39 (N1/HINA). Reuters + @Tesla HQ corroborate. Eighth EU market.","approvedOn":"2026-09-29","regulator":"DZM (Drzavni zavod za mjeriteljstvo)","highlight":true,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-09-30","headline":"DZM recognition of RDW Art.39 corroborated","snippet":"fsd-eu-tracker / N1 (HINA): Croatian State Office for Metrology (DZM) letter to Tesla Hrvatska recognises Dutch RDW provisional type approval for use in Croatia. Map unchanged at 8/27.","url":"https://fsd-eu-tracker.de/en/","source":"N1/HINA via fsd-eu-tracker","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-09-29","headline":"FSD Supervised approved — eighth EU market","snippet":"Tesla Europe: approved in Croatia, rollout soon. Reuters corroborates national go-ahead; EU-wide vote still Dec earliest.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-receives-approval-roll-out-self-driving-software-croatia-2026-09-29/","source":"Reuters / @teslaeurope","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-09-29","headline":"Tesla Europe: approved in Croatia","snippet":"Official: FSD Supervised now approved in Croatia — rollout will begin soon.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2104844301461262602","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"}]},{"code":"LV","name":"Latvia","populationM":1.9,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Economy minister met Tesla about safe implementation.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4","confidence":"low","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"Ministerial meeting on safe implementation","snippet":"Prior signal that Latvia’s economy minister discussed Tesla FSD implementation.","url":null,"source":"Vote-lab evidence baseline","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"SI","name":"Slovenia","populationM":2.1,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"AVP recognised RDW temporary Art.39 approval (7 Sep 2026); Tesla Europe: rollout soon.","approvedOn":"2026-09-07","regulator":"AVP (Slovenian Traffic Safety Agency)","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"Live / rolling out","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-09-14","headline":"Infrastructure minister: positive FSD Supervised ride","snippet":"Deputy PM / Infrastructure Minister Jernej Vrtovec: system is safe, efficient; Slovenia among first six EU markets. Amplified by @teslaeurope — rollout narrative, not a new approval.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2099637379829285158","source":"@JernejVrtovec / @teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-09-12","headline":"YouTube: first customer FSD drive in Slovenia (claim-grade)","snippet":"Owner channel: Model 3 Highland received FSD update 9 Sep; night drive near Vrhpolje. Supports early SI rollout; not regulatory news.","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU7VHIgYBrM","source":"Jan Skočaj","kind":"youtube"},{"date":"2026-09-07","headline":"FSD Supervised approved — sixth EU market","snippet":"Tesla Europe + Elon: approved in Slovenia, rollout soon. AVP confirmed recognition of Dutch RDW temporary type approval to Reuters/gov.si.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/slovenia-clears-teslas-fsd-driver-assistance-ahead-eu-vote-2026-09-08/","source":"Reuters / @teslaeurope","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"LU","name":"Luxembourg","populationM":0.7,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Luxembourg decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"MT","name":"Malta","populationM":0.6,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Maltese decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"CY","name":"Cyprus","populationM":1,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Cypriot decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]}],"changelog":[{"date":"2026-10-12","title":"Material catch-up: DE Bilger backing + rename; TCMV Oct discussions held; SK imminent; odds up","body":"~10d gap after scheduler died (empty until re-registered 12 Oct). Map still 8/27 · ~12.7%. TCMV 6 Oct confirmed discussions-only (no vote). BMV/Bilger (6 Oct): ≤10% speed + Tesla Assisted Driving rename + push for prompt EU approval; Elon Danke Schön. Tesla EU sites renamed ~8–9 Oct. SK Ráž recognition letter \"coming days\" (unconfirmed). Reuters RDW-pressure piece. FR UTAC still out. Odds: Dec EU 0.32→0.42 / EOY 0.36→0.48; PT Dec 0.11→0.15 / EOY 0.26→0.32.","kind":"forecast","countries":["DE","FR","SK","PT","SE","NL"]},{"date":"2026-10-12","note":"Catch-up scrape after scheduler empty again (old dual-loop 01a0dd38-* expired). New daily 01a12f53-0ea0-7d82-b811-a5d611b4847d + keep-alive 01a12f53-2f6d-7c41-8247-80e921048228 re-registered 2026-10-12. Start-fresh rule enforced."},{"date":"2026-10-02","title":"Quiet catch-up scrape: map still 8/27; FR UTAC still out; TCMV ~4d; asOf bump","body":"Scheduled fire failed (resume-transcript-too-large); manual catch-up. No new live markets. No primary Tesla/Elon EU-country post. Soft: BMDV Bürgerdienst Dec decision envisaged (not locked); HR owner ride clips. FR formal UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV 6 Oct (~4d) discussions-only; Dec earliest. Odds held (Dec 0.32 / EOY 0.36).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","FR","DE","HR"]},{"date":"2026-10-02","note":"Catch-up after scheduled fire failed (resume-transcript-too-large). Daily durable scrape 01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d — re-register (~7d auto-expiry; created 25 Sep). Keep-alive 01a0dd38-f45d-7860-957a-6d048b95d9d6 due ~2 Oct."},{"date":"2026-10-01","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 8/27; FR UTAC still out; TCMV ~5d; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets. No primary Tesla/Elon EU-country post. Soft DE recaps restate KBA speed-margin review. FR formal UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV 6 Oct (~5d) discussions-only; Dec earliest. Odds held (Dec 0.32 / EOY 0.36).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","FR","DE"]},{"date":"2026-10-01","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Within ~1-2d of ~7d auto-expiry (created 25 Sep) — re-register this run. Keep-alive next ~2 Oct."},{"date":"2026-09-30","title":"Quiet scrape: DZM Croatia soft corroboration; Tesla HQ 8-country amplify; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets (still 8/27 · ~12.7%). Soft: DZM Art.39 recognition via N1/HINA; @Tesla HQ amplifies 8-country tally; IE regulator talks claim-grade. FR UTAC still out. TCMV 6 Oct (~6d) discussions-only. Odds held (Dec 0.32 / EOY 0.36).","kind":"watch","countries":["HR","IE","PT","FR"]},{"date":"2026-09-30","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Within ~2d of ~7d auto-expiry (created 25 Sep) — re-register this run. Keep-alive next ~2 Oct."},{"date":"2026-09-29","title":"Material: Croatia 8th market; ETSC speed-offset reject brief","body":"Tesla Europe + Reuters: Croatia Art.39 recognition → 8/27 · ~12.7%. Same day ETSC position paper urges reject of speed-offset (UN R171 breach claim) and traffic-based contextual max speed ahead of Oct 6 discussions-only TCMV. Dec still earliest EU-wide vote. PT waiting. Odds: Dec EU-wide 0.34→0.32; EOY 0.38→0.36; PT EOY 0.28→0.26.","kind":"approval","countries":["HR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-29","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Material: HR approval + ETSC brief. Keep-alive due same day."},{"date":"2026-09-28","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 7/27; FR UTAC still out; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets. No primary Tesla/Elon EU-country post. FR formal UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV 6 Oct (~8d) discussions-only; Dec earliest. PT waiting. Odds held (Dec 0.34 / EOY 0.38).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","FR"]},{"date":"2026-09-28","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Map still 7/27 · 11.8%. Keep-alive next ~29 Sep."},{"date":"2026-09-27","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 7/27; FR UTAC still out; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets. No primary Tesla/Elon EU-country post since CZ/TCMV-slip items. FR formal UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV 6 Oct discussions-only; Dec earliest. PT waiting. Odds held (Dec 0.34 / EOY 0.38).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","FR"]},{"date":"2026-09-27","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Map still 7/27 · 11.8%. Keep-alive 01a0dd38-f45d-7860-957a-6d048b95d9d6 next ~29 Sep."},{"date":"2026-09-26","title":"Odds: drop October TCMV window — Dec is the near bucket","body":"Removed by_tcmv_window (Oct) from EU-wide and Portugal odds. EU will not operate faster than the published agenda (Oct = discussions only). Near window is by_dec_tcmv (EU 0.34 / PT 0.12); EOY held.","kind":"forecast","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-09-26","title":"Material: Czechia live (7th); TCMV Oct vote cancelled — Dec earliest; odds cut","body":"Czechia recognised RDW Art.39 (21 Sep) → 7/27 · ~11.8%. Draft TCMV 6 Oct agenda is discussions-only (25 min); Reuters/Electrek + Musk 'Sigh' — December earliest EU-wide vote. Soft: Johanna.be BE speeding study (24 Sep); Hirte/KBA speed talks (23 Sep); FR UTAC results still out. PT waiting. Odds: Oct EU 0.35→0.06; EOY 0.52→0.38; PT EOY 0.40→0.28. Tier4: robot*irl Prague first drive.","kind":"material","countries":["CZ","BE","DE","FR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-26","note":"Catch-up scrape after ~9d stall (asOf was 2026-09-17). Durable task re-registered 01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d + keep-alive 01a0dd38-f45d-7860-957a-6d048b95d9d6."},{"date":"2026-09-26","title":"Material catch-up: Czechia 7th market; Oct TCMV no vote → Dec earliest","body":"Czechia Art.39 recognition (21 Sep) → 7/27 · ~11.8%. Electrek/comitology: Oct 6 agenda is 25 min discussions only — December earliest EU-wide vote (Elon 'Sigh'). Soft: Johanna.be BE speeding study; DE Hirte speed clarification. FR UTAC results still out. PT waiting. Odds: Oct EU-wide 0.35→0.06; EOY 0.52→0.38; PT EOY 0.40→0.28.","kind":"approval","countries":["CZ","BE","DE","FR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-26","note":"Durable daily scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Catch-up after asOf 2026-09-17 (~9d gap). Material: CZ approval + TCMV slip."},{"date":"2026-09-17","title":"Quiet scrape: ES 460k km testing soft; SI minister ride; FR results still out; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets (still 6/27 · 9.4%). Soft: @teslaeurope 16 Sep Spain 2yr/460k km Supervised testing video — not customer approval. Soft: SI minister positive ride (14 Sep). France mid/late-Sep UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV ~19 days; PT waiting. Oct odds nudged 0.36→0.35.","kind":"watch","countries":["ES","SI","FR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-17","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a090a1-6c7a-7303-816e-6a73ecad1fef). Map still 6/27 · 9.4%. Re-register before ~7-day scheduler expiry (created 11 Sep)."},{"date":"2026-09-12","title":"Quiet scrape: KBA dual-path FOI; FR results still pending; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets (still 6/27 · 9.4%). Soft DE: KBA FOI confirms TCMV + national Art.39(5) both under review — not approval. France UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV ~24 days; PT waiting. Odds held.","kind":"watch","countries":["DE","FR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-12","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a090a1-6c7a-7303-816e-6a73ecad1fef). Map still 6/27 · 9.4%. Re-register before ~7-day scheduler expiry (~18 Sep)."},{"date":"2026-09-11","title":"Quiet scrape: SE testing video; SI rollout clips; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets. @teslaeurope: ~1yr Sweden Supervised testing + Slovenia customer footage. France still testing; TCMV ~25 days; PT waiting. Odds buckets held.","kind":"watch","countries":["SE","SI","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-11","note":"Immediate fire of daily scrape task (manual). Map still 6/27 · 9.4%; durable scheduler 01a090a1-6c7a-7303-816e-6a73ecad1fef remains for next 1d fires."},{"date":"2026-09-09","title":"Material: Slovenia live; France road-testing; Art.39 dashboard; Tier4 YouTube","body":"Sixth EU market (SI, 7 Sep). France moved opposed→reviewing with Tesla-supplied on-road FSD tests after Tabarot–Musk call; AFP: no major blockers so far. Tesla Europe published Article 39 safety dashboard (1 Sep). Odds recalibrated up for Oct/EOY. Tier4 channelHints locked (IntelligentTesla + top-10). YouTube: Steven Peeters SI, robot*irl DK, Tesla Jigsaw TCMV.","kind":"material","countries":["SI","FR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-09","note":"Daily scrape (catch-up from mid-Aug): 6 live markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE/SI · ~9.4% pop); FR testing; TCMV 6 Oct; PT waiting; Tier4 YouTube channelHints expanded."},{"date":"2026-08-16","title":"Quiet-day odds: explicit P(by date) for EU-wide and Portugal","body":"No new live markets or TCMV agenda change. Added structured odds buckets (Oct window / EOY 2026 / mid-2027 / EOY 2027) plus expected live-country coverage ranges so quiet scrapes still improve the forecast.","kind":"watch","countries":["PT"]},{"date":"2026-08-16","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting; no new national recognition or primary Elon/Tesla EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-15","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting; no new national recognition or primary Elon/Tesla EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-14","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting; no new national recognition or primary Elon/Tesla EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-13","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting. @teslaeurope announced FSD Supervised ride-along in Switzerland (non-EU, demo — not customer approval)."},{"date":"2026-08-12","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting / not on Tesla approved list; no new IMT/RDW/national recognition or Elon/Tesla primary EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-11","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal not on Tesla approved list; no new IMT/RDW/national recognition. @teslaeurope solicited EU FSD user stories (non-regulatory)."},{"date":"2026-08-10","note":"Schema v2: watchTargets, socialEvidence, per-country news[≤3]. Single blob isit-catalog/fsd-eu.json for IntelligenceISIT; daily Grok task overwrites blob; page loads /api/fsd-eu on refresh."}],"_meta":{"loaded_from":"blob:isit-catalog/fsd-eu.json","blob_etag":"\"0x8DF283F31EC7A9E\"","blob_last_modified":"2026-10-12T08:59:59.000Z","served_at":"2026-10-13T01:12:00.370Z","cache":{"hit":false,"age_ms":0,"ttl_ms":300000}}}