{"meta":{"title":"Tesla FSD Supervised — EU Progress Tracker","subtitle":"Country-by-country regulatory status, double-majority model, availability estimates, and source evidence","asOf":"2026-08-16","asOfLabel":"16 August 2026","updatedAt":"2026-08-19T19:04:26Z","timezone":"Europe/Lisbon","schemaVersion":2,"brand":"IntelligenceISIT","brandUrl":"https://www.intelligenceisit.com","sitePath":"/fsd-eu/","dataUrl":"/api/fsd-eu","blob":{"container":"isit-catalog","name":"fsd-eu.json","note":"Daily Grok durable task (ISITWeb/ops/fsd-eu) scrapes watch targets and overwrites this single blob. Page fetches /api/fsd-eu on load/refresh. Not Codex."},"opsPath":"ops/fsd-eu/data/fsd-eu.json","owner":"grok-durable-schedule","disclaimer":"Analytical forecast from public sources and social posts. Not legal advice, not a leaked roll call, not affiliated with Tesla or any regulator. Social statements are recorded as primary-source claims, not independent verification."},"summary":{"headline":"Five EU markets live. EU-wide vote still ahead.","blurb":"FSD Supervised is customer-available in five member states via Dutch Article 39 type approval and mutual recognition. The bloc-wide decision still needs a qualified majority in the TCMV — next realistic window: 6 October 2026.","approvedCount":5,"memberStates":27,"populationSharePct":8.9,"euWideStatus":"pending","euWideLabel":"Pending TCMV vote","nextMilestone":{"id":"tcmv-2026-10-06","label":"TCMV meeting — possible EU-wide vote","date":"2026-10-06","confidence":"medium"},"portugalStatus":"waiting","portugalOneLiner":"Portugal not on Tesla’s approved list; IMT monitoring EU process; testing framework exists but no customer rollout."},"thresholds":{"memberStatesRequired":15,"populationPctRequired":65,"ruleNote":"Qualified majority: at least 15 of 27 member states representing at least 65% of the EU population. Abstentions do not count toward either threshold."},"estimates":{"euWide":{"label":"EU-wide customer availability","central":"2026-10 to 2027-Q1","earliest":"2026-10","latest":"2027-Q2","confidence":"medium","rationale":"June 2026 TCMV was discussion-only. Next realistic vote window is 6 October 2026; if deferred or fails thresholds, recognition can slip into early 2027. See estimates.odds.euWide for explicit P(by date) buckets."},"portugal":{"label":"Portugal customer availability","central":"After EU-wide vote, or late-2026 national recognition","earliest":"2026-10","latest":"2027-Q2","confidence":"low","path":"either","rationale":"No IMT recognition or Tesla Portugal activation yet. Most likely path is EU-wide approval after TCMV; national fast-track possible but not signalled. See estimates.odds.portugal for date-bucket probabilities (quiet-day recalibrated)."},"oddsNote":"Subjective probability buckets recalibrated even on quiet scrape days from: days-to-TCMV, live market count/pop share, national recognition pace, Germany/France/Italy posture, Tesla market-list changes, IMT/DRE silence. Not a market or prediction market — analytical forecast only.","odds":{"euWide":{"asOf":"2026-08-16","question":"P(EU-wide FSD Supervised customer path clears — TCMV QMV pass or equivalent bloc recognition enabling Tesla activation beyond the five live markets)","buckets":[{"p":0.28,"note":"Vote scheduled as possible on 6 Oct; June was discussion-only — slip risk high","id":"by_tcmv_window","label":"By end of Oct 2026 TCMV window"},{"p":0.42,"note":"Allows Dec TCMV or delayed recognition paperwork","id":"by_eoy_2026","label":"By end of 2026"},{"p":0.72,"note":"Baseline if Oct slips once or thresholds need another committee cycle","id":"by_mid_2027","label":"By mid-2027"},{"p":0.86,"note":"Still fails if large states block or Article 39 path is reworked","id":"by_eoy_2027","label":"By end of 2027"}],"drivers":["TCMV 6 Oct 2026 is the next realistic vote window (~50 days from mid-Aug)","Only 5/27 states (~8.9% pop) live — far below 15 states / 65% pop QMV","Large-population states (DE/FR/IT) not yet in the mutual-recognition wave","No corroborated agenda text proving a binding Oct vote (still “possible”)"],"updatedReason":"Quiet day: no new live markets or TCMV agenda change — odds unchanged vs prior week but now explicit buckets for tracking"},"portugal":{"asOf":"2026-08-16","question":"P(Portugal customer FSD Supervised available — Tesla PT activation for PT-registered vehicles)","buckets":[{"p":0.15,"note":"Needs EU pass + fast PT activation, or surprise IMT recognition — neither signalled","id":"by_tcmv_window","label":"By end of Oct 2026"},{"p":0.34,"note":"EU path after Oct/Dec vote, or late national recognition; Tesla PT list still blank","id":"by_eoy_2026","label":"By end of 2026"},{"p":0.66,"note":"Most likely if EU-wide clears in autumn/winter 2026","id":"by_mid_2027","label":"By mid-2027"},{"p":0.8,"note":"Default if EU path proceeds with one slip cycle","id":"by_eoy_2027","label":"By end of 2027"}],"drivers":["Portugal absent from Tesla PT approved-market footnotes","No IMT recognition / DRE instrument enabling customer use","Testing/licensing framework exists — not customer rollout","National path possible (like BE/DK) but no PT ministerial timing signal","Portugal odds track EU-wide path closely; national fast-track remains secondary"],"updatedReason":"Quiet day recalibration: still waiting; EU-path dependency dominates; slight discount vs EU-wide buckets for Tesla PT activation lag"},"coverage":{"asOf":"2026-08-16","question":"Expected count of EU member states with customer FSD Supervised live","now":5,"scenarios":[{"expectedLow":5,"note":"More Article 39 recognitions possible before/without EU-wide vote","id":"at_tcmv","label":"Around Oct 2026 TCMV","expectedHigh":8},{"expectedLow":6,"note":"Wide range: fails TCMV → slow recognition drip; passes → many markets unlock","id":"eoy_2026","label":"End of 2026","expectedHigh":18},{"expectedLow":12,"note":"If EU-wide clears, most of the map can fill; if not, still limited club","id":"mid_2027","label":"Mid-2027","expectedHigh":27}]}}},"watchTargets":{"description":"Sites and accounts the daily Grok task should prioritise. Official/regulatory first; social for primary-source claims and rollout signals.","tier1_official":[{"id":"tesla-pt-fsd","name":"Tesla Portugal FSD page","url":"https://www.tesla.com/pt_pt/fsd","why":"Approved-market footnotes; activation limited to registration market"},{"id":"tesla-pt-sub","name":"Tesla Portugal subscription / FSD purchase pages","url":"https://www.tesla.com/pt_pt/","why":"EU approved-country list often mirrored on subscription UI"},{"id":"tesla-eu-fsd","name":"Tesla Europe country FSD pages","url":"https://www.tesla.com/en_eu/fsd","why":"Cross-check market footnotes across EU locales"},{"id":"imt","name":"IMT (Portugal)","url":"https://www.imt-ip.pt/","why":"Portuguese recognition / test-licensing authority"},{"id":"dre","name":"Diário da República","url":"https://diariodarepublica.pt/","why":"Portuguese legal instruments affecting AV / FSD"},{"id":"rdw","name":"RDW news","url":"https://www.rdw.nl/en/news","why":"Originator of Article 39 provisional type approval"},{"id":"ec-tcmv","name":"European Commission / TCMV / comitology","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/comitology-register/","why":"EU-wide vote scheduling and outcomes"},{"id":"unece-r171","name":"UNECE / UN R171 (DCAS)","url":"https://unece.org/","why":"Underlying DCAS regulatory framework"}],"tier2_regulators_news":[{"id":"kba","name":"KBA / German transport ministry signals","url":"https://www.kba.de/","why":"Germany review"},{"id":"traficom","name":"Traficom (Finland)","url":"https://www.traficom.fi/","why":"Possible national approval ahead of EU vote"},{"id":"electrek","name":"Electrek Tesla FSD Europe","url":"https://electrek.co/","why":"Rollout and minister statements"},{"id":"reuters","name":"Reuters autos / Tesla FSD Europe","url":"https://www.reuters.com/","why":"Regulator and safety reporting"},{"id":"nota","name":"Not a Tesla App","url":"https://www.notateslaapp.com/","why":"Country application status"},{"id":"etsc","name":"ETSC","url":"https://etsc.eu/","why":"Safety council letters to ministers"},{"id":"fsd-eu-tracker","name":"FSD-EU-Tracker","url":"https://fsd-eu-tracker.de/en/","why":"Aggregated timeline (cross-check only)"},{"id":"eleport","name":"Eleport FSD Europe explainer","url":"https://eleport.com/tesla-fsd-europe/","why":"Narrative timeline of first five approvals"}],"tier3_social_primary":[{"id":"x-elon","name":"Elon Musk on X","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk","handle":"@elonmusk","why":"Primary-source pressure on regulators (e.g. France delay 'will cost lives'); record as claim, not independent proof"},{"id":"x-teslaeurope","name":"Tesla Europe on X","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope","handle":"@teslaeurope","why":"Official rollout announcements, km stats, country approvals"},{"id":"x-tesla","name":"Tesla on X","url":"https://x.com/Tesla","handle":"@Tesla","why":"Global FSD announcements that affect Europe narrative"},{"id":"other-social","name":"Tesla / Elon elsewhere","url":null,"why":"LinkedIn Tesla Europe, Tesla IR, conference Q&A — only when corroborated or clearly primary-source"}],"significance_for_email":["New national approval or recognition","Tesla official market added for Portugal or major EU state","TCMV vote scheduled, held, passed, or failed","IMT / Diário da República instrument enabling Portuguese customer use","Elon/Tesla primary post announcing EU country availability or material timeline change"],"ignore":["Repeated speculation without corroboration","Generic FSD US content with no EU impact","Uncorroborated social reposts of old news"]},"socialEvidence":[{"id":"teslaeurope-ch-ridealong-2026-08-13","date":"2026-08-13","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2087779368290636287","quote":"FSD Supervised Ride Along experience now live in Switzerland 🇨🇭","countries":[],"topics":["demo","marketing"],"interpretation":"Passenger ride-along demo in non-EU Switzerland — not customer FSD Supervised activation and not an EU national approval. Does not change the five-market EU map or Portugal status.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"elon-france-cost-lives-2026-07-22","date":"2026-07-22","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2079965837382037520","quote":"Delaying the approval of FSD in France will cost lives","countries":["FR"],"topics":["safety","approval-pressure"],"interpretation":"Primary-source claim linking delayed authorisation to preventable harm. Recorded as Tesla/Elon position; not an independent actuarial finding. Useful context when modelling France’s opposed stance vs safety narrative.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"elon-nl-first-europe-2026-04-10","date":"2026-04-10","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2042724887320760724","quote":"First (supervised) FSD approval in Europe! Congratulations to the Tesla team and thank you to the regulatory authorities in the Netherlands…","countries":["NL"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Confirms Netherlands as first EU supervised FSD market from Tesla leadership.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"elon-nl-safety-stats-2026-06-09","date":"2026-06-09","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2064457520748339647","quote":"Major improvement in safety statistics with FSD turned on in the Netherlands!","countries":["NL"],"topics":["safety"],"interpretation":"Amplifies Tesla Europe Dutch safety stats; company-reported figures.","kind":"claim","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-5-2x-2026-07-28","date":"2026-07-28","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2082175370569417066","quote":"In the last 4 months, FSD Supervised has been over 5.2x safer than manual driving – across 65 million kilometers in 5 EU countries","countries":["NL","LT","EE","DK","BE"],"topics":["safety","fleet"],"interpretation":"Official Tesla Europe fleet claim for the five live markets. Methodology is Tesla’s; regulators and journalists have disputed related US marketing figures.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-50m-km-2026-07-14","date":"2026-07-14","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","quote":"Over 50 million kilometers driven on FSD Supervised by our customers in the Netherlands, Estonia, Belgium, Lithuania & Denmark","countries":["NL","EE","BE","LT","DK"],"topics":["fleet"],"interpretation":"Scale signal in the five approved markets; does not change regulatory map.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-2-2m-train-2026-08-07","date":"2026-08-07","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2085633306922758464","quote":"FSD Supervised has been trained & tested on 2.2 million km across 19 EU countries, handling edge cases most people wouldn’t see in their lifetime","countries":[],"topics":["testing","eu-wide"],"interpretation":"Suggests data collection / testing footprint well beyond the five live markets — relevant to readiness narrative, not approval.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-dk-2026-06-09","date":"2026-06-09","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2064350518907167166","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Denmark 🇩🇰 — Rollout will begin soon","countries":["DK"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Official approval announcement for Denmark.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-be-2026-06-11","date":"2026-06-11","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2065093518276911603","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Belgium 🇧🇪 — Rollout will begin soon","countries":["BE"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Official approval announcement for Belgium.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"sweden-safety-framing-note","date":"2026-06-18","platform":"editorial","author":"Tracker note","handle":null,"url":"https://electrek.co/2026/06/18/sweden-tesla-fsd-speeding-eu-vote/","quote":"Sweden’s authorities recommended EU-level rejection unless deliberate speed-offset behaviour is fixed — while Tesla’s broader public message is that withholding FSD costs lives / public welfare.","countries":["SE"],"topics":["safety","opposition"],"interpretation":"Sweden is the clearest formal ‘No unless fixed’ signal. Pair with Elon’s general safety framing (e.g. France ‘will cost lives’): the policy trade-off is safety-of-deployment vs safety-of-delay. Record both sides; do not treat either as settled science.","kind":"analysis","featured":true}],"milestones":[{"date":"2026-04-10","title":"Netherlands — first EU type approval","body":"RDW grants provisional European type approval under UN R171 / Article 39.","kind":"approval","countries":["NL"]},{"date":"2026-05-20","title":"Lithuania recognizes Dutch approval","body":"First mutual-recognition national go-ahead after the Netherlands.","kind":"approval","countries":["LT"]},{"date":"2026-05-29","title":"Estonia recognizes Dutch approval","body":"Transpordiamet accepts the RDW certificate; customer rollout follows.","kind":"approval","countries":["EE"]},{"date":"2026-06-09","title":"Denmark approves after technical review","body":"Færdselsstyrelsen signs off after reviewing the file.","kind":"approval","countries":["DK"]},{"date":"2026-06-10","title":"Belgium becomes the fifth live market","body":"Flemish mobility recognition extends nationwide.","kind":"approval","countries":["BE"]},{"date":"2026-06-18","title":"Sweden recommends EU rejection unless speed-offset fixed","body":"Formal opposition path tied to deliberate speeding behaviour.","kind":"opposition","countries":["SE"]},{"date":"2026-06-23","title":"Finland signals possible national approval after summer","body":"Traficom reviewing RDW file; may move before EU-wide vote.","kind":"review","countries":["FI"]},{"date":"2026-06-30","title":"TCMV discusses FSD — no vote","body":"Discussion only; EU-wide decision deferred.","kind":"eu","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-07-13","title":"Italy — homologation file under review","body":"Tesla files for recognition of RDW approval with MIT.","kind":"review","countries":["IT"]},{"date":"2026-07-17","title":"Germany — KBA evaluation ongoing","body":"BMV/KBA assessing RDW dossier.","kind":"review","countries":["DE"]},{"date":"2026-07-22","title":"France — not safe enough; Elon says delay costs lives","body":"Minister declines national adoption; Musk posts delay will cost lives.","kind":"opposition","countries":["FR"]},{"date":"2026-07-23","title":"Spain — no unilateral go-ahead","body":"Prefers coordinated EU path over national shortcut.","kind":"review","countries":["ES"]},{"date":"2026-07-28","title":"Tesla Europe: 5.2× safer claim over 65M km","body":"Company fleet stats for five live markets.","kind":"evidence","countries":["NL","LT","EE","DK","BE"]},{"date":"2026-08-06","title":"Reuters: regulators keep FSD safety data confidential","body":"RDW and others withhold evaluation detail; map unchanged.","kind":"evidence","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-08-10","title":"Daily watch: no Portuguese or EU material change","body":"Tesla PT still lists only NL, LT, EE, DK, BE.","kind":"watch","countries":["PT"]},{"date":"2026-08-16","title":"Daily watch: still five live markets; no new recognition","body":"Tracker/web/X cross-check: map unchanged (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE); TCMV still 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting.","kind":"watch","countries":["PT"]},{"date":"2026-10-06","title":"Next TCMV window (expected)","body":"First realistic opportunity for EU-wide vote after June discussion-only session.","kind":"eu","countries":[],"upcoming":true}],"countries":[{"code":"NL","name":"Netherlands","populationM":18,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"RDW originated and granted the Article 39 provisional type approval (10 Apr 2026).","approvedOn":"2026-04-10","regulator":"RDW","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-06","headline":"Safety assessment detail kept confidential","snippet":"Reporting that RDW withholds parts of the FSD safety evaluation as manufacturer confidential — transparency debate, not a change in availability.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/pressured-by-tesla-european-regulators-keep-full-self-driving-safety-data-secret-2026-08-06/","source":"Reuters","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-07-28","headline":"EU fleet safety stats published","snippet":"Tesla Europe claims 5.2× fewer collisions vs manual over ~65M km in the five live markets, including NL.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2082175370569417066","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-04-10","headline":"First EU type approval","snippet":"RDW issues provisional European type approval for FSD Supervised; Elon: “First (supervised) FSD approval in Europe!”","url":"https://www.rdw.nl/en/news/2026/rdw-explanation-of-european-type-approval-tesla-with-provisional-validity-in-the-netherlands","source":"RDW","kind":"regulator"}]},{"code":"LT","name":"Lithuania","populationM":2.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Recognized Dutch approval; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-05-20","regulator":"LTSA","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-14","headline":"Among five live markets in 50M+ km tally","snippet":"Tesla Europe lists Lithuania among customer FSD markets exceeding 50 million km.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-11","headline":"Customer videos from Vilnius","snippet":"Tesla Europe amplifies Lithuania FSD clips (construction, tourists, unmarked roads).","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2065145770194653553","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-05-20","headline":"Second EU country to go live","snippet":"National recognition of Dutch RDW certificate; first mutual-recognition after NL.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/05/20/tesla-fsd-lithuania-second-european-country/","source":"Electrek","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"EE","name":"Estonia","populationM":1.4,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Transpordiamet accepted RDW certificate; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-05-29","regulator":"Transpordiamet","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-14","headline":"Live market in Tesla Europe km tally","snippet":"Estonia included in official five-country customer driving statistics.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-05-29","headline":"Third EU approval","snippet":"Transpordiamet accepts Dutch type approval; rollout follows within weeks of Lithuania.","url":"https://estonianworld.com/technology/estonia-approves-teslas-self-driving-system-for-its-roads/","source":"Estonian World","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"DK","name":"Denmark","populationM":6,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Færdselsstyrelsen approved after technical review; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-06-09","regulator":"Færdselsstyrelsen","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-27","headline":"FSD Supervised clips from Denmark","snippet":"Tesla Europe highlights urban/beach intersections with pedestrians and bikes.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2081843414497464646","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-11","headline":"Customer rollout starts","snippet":"FSD Supervised begins reaching Danish owners after approval.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2064877461343740353","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-09","headline":"Fourth EU approval","snippet":"Denmark signs off after technical review; earlier among speed/safety skeptics.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/06/09/tesla-fsd-approved-denmark-fourth-european-country/","source":"Electrek","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"BE","name":"Belgium","populationM":11.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"National recognition of Dutch approval; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-06-10","regulator":"Regional mobility (Flanders signature)","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-14","headline":"Live in five-market km tally","snippet":"Belgium listed among customer FSD markets in Tesla Europe statistics.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-11","headline":"Tesla Europe: approved in Belgium","snippet":"Official announcement; rollout to begin soon after Flemish recognition.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2065093518276911603","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-10","headline":"Fifth EU market","snippet":"Belgium becomes fifth country via mutual recognition path.","url":"https://evxl.co/2026/06/10/tesla-fsd-belgium-denmark-approval/","source":"EVXL","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"DE","name":"Germany","populationM":83.6,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"medium","signal":"KBA / BMV preparing technical evaluation of the RDW dossier; no national go-ahead.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"KBA","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-10 to 2027-Q1","confidence":"medium","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-27","headline":"New transport minister; no FSD signal","snippet":"Steffen Bilger nominated/appointed; no public FSD position; KBA review continues.","url":"https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2026-07/bundeskanzler-bestaetigt-steffen-bilger-wird-bundesverkehrsminister","source":"Zeit","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-07-17","headline":"KBA evaluation confirmed","snippet":"State Secretary Hirte: BMV/KBA assessing RDW Article 39 file; practical evaluation planned.","url":"https://www.abgeordnetenwatch.de/profile/christian-hirte/fragen-antworten/werden-sie-sich-als-bmv-staatssekretaer-persoenlich-fuer-eine-zeitnahe-zulassung-von-tesla-fsd-supervised-l2","source":"abgeordnetenwatch","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-08-07","headline":"Tesla: trained/tested across 19 EU countries","snippet":"Company claim of 2.2M km training/testing footprint — readiness narrative for large markets including DE.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2085633306922758464","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"}]},{"code":"FR","name":"France","populationM":68.6,"status":"opposed","voteLean":"no","confidence":"high","signal":"Minister: safety trade-offs not yet sufficient; declines national adoption of Dutch approval.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"Ministère des Transports","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2027-H1 if EU path clears with changes","confidence":"low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-22","headline":"Elon: delay “will cost lives”","snippet":"After Tabarot’s safety objections, Musk posts that delaying FSD approval in France will cost lives — primary-source safety-of-delay claim.","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2079965837382037520","source":"@elonmusk","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-07-22","headline":"Minister: not safe enough yet","snippet":"Philippe Tabarot: safety trade-offs insufficient (speed offset, attention in complex urban manoeuvres); wants EU framework.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/07/22/france-tesla-fsd-approval-tabarot-speeding/","source":"Electrek","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-07-23","headline":"France opposes EU approval for now","snippet":"Reuters: France opposes EU-wide FSD approval in current form.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/france-opposes-eu-approval-teslas-fsd-driver-assistance-software-now-2026-07-23/","source":"Reuters","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"IT","name":"Italy","populationM":58.9,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"medium","signal":"Homologation file filed with MIT; formal technical dialogue, no conclusion.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"MIT / Motorizzazione","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4 to 2027-Q1","confidence":"medium","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-13","headline":"Application under analysis","snippet":"Tesla files for recognition of RDW approval; MIT confirms documents in analysis phase.","url":"https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4430/tesla-fsd-inches-closer-to-regulatory-approval-in-italy","source":"Not a Tesla App","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-04-01","headline":"Parliamentary pressure for approval","snippet":"Earlier political push (e.g. Calenda question) to prioritise Italian authorisation.","url":"https://insideevs.it/news/794421/tesla-fsd-italia-calenda-salvini/","source":"InsideEVs IT","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"ES","name":"Spain","populationM":49.1,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"DGT testing (ES-AV) and ministerial signals; prefers coordinated EU path over unilateral shortcut.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"DGT","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4 to 2027-Q1","confidence":"low","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-23","headline":"No unilateral go-ahead","snippet":"Minister Hereu: Spain will not adopt RDW approval alone; coordinates with Commission, DGT, UN path.","url":"https://x.com/mgualdo/status/2080338935620800589","source":"Ministerial reply / X","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"ES-AV pilot fleet growth","snippet":"Public-road testing under DGT ES-AV programme (tens of cars, tens of thousands of km reported earlier in 2026).","url":"https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-full-self-driving-fsd-testing-gains-major-ground-in-spain/","source":"Teslarati","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"PL","name":"Poland","populationM":36.5,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No clear government position located; likely waits on EU-wide path.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"Daily watch: no Polish recognition, ministry statement, or Tesla PL market activation found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"RO","name":"Romania","populationM":19,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Romanian authority decision or Tesla market footnote change located.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"CZ","name":"Czechia","populationM":10.9,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"medium","signal":"Ministry reported reviewing the Dutch decision individually.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4 to 2027-Q1","confidence":"low","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"Individual review of Dutch decision","snippet":"Earlier reporting that Czech authorities would review the Dutch Article 39 outcome on a national basis rather than rubber-stamp.","url":null,"source":"Vote-lab evidence baseline","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"PT","name":"Portugal","populationM":10.6,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"IMT monitoring Europe; autonomous-driving test licensing framework exists; Tesla PT lists Portugal as not approved.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"IMT","highlight":true,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote (or late-2026 national)","confidence":"low","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-16","headline":"Still absent from Tesla Portugal approved list","snippet":"Daily watch: no PT customer activation; five-market map (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE) unchanged on trackers; no IMT/DRE instrument or Tesla PT market add.","url":"https://www.tesla.com/pt_pt/fsd","source":"Tesla Portugal / daily watch","kind":"official"},{"date":"2026-08-16","headline":"No IMT / Diário da República change","snippet":"Daily watch through 16 Aug: no Portuguese recognition, IMT decision, or customer rollout announcement.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch memory","kind":"watch"},{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"Test-licensing framework in place","snippet":"Portugal’s mid-2026 autonomous-driving test licensing regime exists; enables testing, not customer FSD Supervised.","url":null,"source":"Prior context / IMT watch","kind":"regulator"}]},{"code":"SE","name":"Sweden","populationM":10.6,"status":"opposed","voteLean":"no","confidence":"high","signal":"Recommends No at EU level unless speed-offset behaviour is resolved.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"Trafikverket / Transportstyrelsen","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"Only if speed concerns resolved","confidence":"medium","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-18","headline":"Recommends EU rejection unless speed-offset fixed","snippet":"Swedish authorities urge No while the system can deliberately exceed posted limits — strongest formal Nordic opposition signal.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/06/18/sweden-tesla-fsd-speeding-eu-vote/","source":"Electrek","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-07-22","headline":"Safety-of-delay vs safety-of-deployment","snippet":"Elon’s France post (“will cost lives”) frames the same trade-off Sweden faces: delay risk vs speed-compliance risk. Record both claims; neither is settled independent science.","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2079965837382037520","source":"@elonmusk (FR context)","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-15","headline":"Disputed safety stats sent to regulators","snippet":"Reuters: experts criticised Tesla safety figures shown to European regulators including Sweden.","url":"https://eletric-vehicles.com/tesla/tesla-presents-misleading-fsd-safety-data-to-european-regulators-reuters-report/","source":"Reuters via EV sites","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"GR","name":"Greece","populationM":10.4,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Reportedly sought fast-track national recognition of the Dutch approval.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q3 to 2026-Q4","confidence":"low","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"Fast-track interest reported","snippet":"ETSC/coverage grouped Greece with states exploring faster recognition of the Dutch certificate.","url":"https://etsc.eu/lithuania-and-estonia-authorise-tesla-fsd-with-belgium-and-greece-fast-tracking/","source":"ETSC","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"HU","name":"Hungary","populationM":9.6,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Government examining introduction; political interest in being a frontrunner, no decision yet.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4","confidence":"low","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-24","headline":"Minister: want frontrunners, not followers","snippet":"Science/tech minister says FSD discussed; European example exists; no government decision yet.","url":"https://infostart.hu/belfold/2026/06/24/a-magyar-kormany-nal-is-teritekre-kerult-a-tesla-onvezeto-rendszere","source":"Infostart","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"AT","name":"Austria","populationM":9.2,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Austrian recognition or ministry FSD stance located in daily watch.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"BG","name":"Bulgaria","populationM":6.4,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Bulgarian authority decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"FI","name":"Finland","populationM":5.6,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"medium","signal":"Traficom assessing approval; winter / speeding concerns raised; may approve nationally after summer.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"Traficom","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q3 to 2026-Q4","confidence":"medium","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-23","headline":"May approve before EU vote","snippet":"Reuters: Traficom reviewing Dutch approval; possible faster national schedule after summer; winter and speed-offset questions open.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/finland-may-approve-teslas-supervised-self-driving-software-before-eu-vote-2026-06-23/","source":"Reuters","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"SK","name":"Slovakia","populationM":5.4,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Slovak authority decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"IE","name":"Ireland","populationM":5.4,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"medium","signal":"Government / NSAI engagement with Tesla reported; under review.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"NSAI","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4","confidence":"medium","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-09","headline":"Engagement with Tesla reported","snippet":"Coverage of Irish government/NSAI engagement around FSD authorisation pathway.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/06/09/tesla-fsd-approved-denmark-fourth-european-country/","source":"Electrek (context)","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"HR","name":"Croatia","populationM":3.9,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"Customer demonstrations reported; no government position.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No government decision","snippet":"Demos only in prior context; no Croatian approval found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"LV","name":"Latvia","populationM":1.9,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Economy minister met Tesla about safe implementation.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4","confidence":"low","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"Ministerial meeting on safe implementation","snippet":"Prior signal that Latvia’s economy minister discussed Tesla FSD implementation.","url":null,"source":"Vote-lab evidence baseline","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"SI","name":"Slovenia","populationM":2.1,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"Citizen petition only; no government response found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No government response located","snippet":"Citizen interest only; no official recognition.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"LU","name":"Luxembourg","populationM":0.7,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Luxembourg decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"MT","name":"Malta","populationM":0.6,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Maltese decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"CY","name":"Cyprus","populationM":1,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Cypriot decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]}],"changelog":[{"date":"2026-08-16","title":"Quiet-day odds: explicit P(by date) for EU-wide and Portugal","body":"No new live markets or TCMV agenda change. Added structured odds buckets (Oct window / EOY 2026 / mid-2027 / EOY 2027) plus expected live-country coverage ranges so quiet scrapes still improve the forecast.","kind":"watch","countries":["PT"]},{"date":"2026-08-16","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting; no new national recognition or primary Elon/Tesla EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-15","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting; no new national recognition or primary Elon/Tesla EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-14","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting; no new national recognition or primary Elon/Tesla EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-13","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting. @teslaeurope announced FSD Supervised ride-along in Switzerland (non-EU, demo — not customer approval)."},{"date":"2026-08-12","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting / not on Tesla approved list; no new IMT/RDW/national recognition or Elon/Tesla primary EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-11","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal not on Tesla approved list; no new IMT/RDW/national recognition. @teslaeurope solicited EU FSD user stories (non-regulatory)."},{"date":"2026-08-10","note":"Schema v2: watchTargets, socialEvidence, per-country news[≤3]. Single blob isit-catalog/fsd-eu.json for IntelligenceISIT; daily Grok task overwrites blob; page loads /api/fsd-eu on refresh."}],"_meta":{"loaded_from":"blob:isit-catalog/fsd-eu.json","blob_etag":"\"0x8DEFE25086FA672\"","blob_last_modified":"2026-08-19T19:06:54.000Z","served_at":"2026-08-24T22:14:57.724Z","cache":{"hit":true,"age_ms":256739,"ttl_ms":300000}}}